Climate change is becoming harder to ignore in Eagle County. Over the past nine months, its effects have touched nearly every aspect of our lives. We experienced a record-low snowfall last winter, followed by a dry spring that worsened our long-term drought. Unfortunately, the trifecta of historically low snowpack, the early melt out of what snow there was, and our hot dry weather has intensified the conditions for wildfires.
In recent weeks, we’ve watched new fires ignite and spread across Colorado. Many of us have breathed smoky air, while some friends and neighbors have been forced to evacuate their homes. These events are stark reminders of how closely our communities are tied to the health of our climate and water resources.
The worsening drought prompted Eagle River Water & Sanitation District (ERWSD) to declare a Stage III Water Shortage in April. The declaration included fines for excessive water use, outdoor watering restrictions, and an education campaign to encourage water conservation.
In May, ERWSD launched its Live Like a Local campaign in partnership with local governments, nonprofits, and community organizations, including Walking Mountains and the Climate Action Collaborative. Since then, District staff have met with metro districts, town councils, homeowners associations, landscaping companies, residents, and visitors to share practical ways to conserve water. You’ve likely also noticed signs throughout the valley reminding everyone about the water shortage and encouraging simple actions that can make a meaningful difference.
The encouraging news is that those efforts appear to be working. According to ERWSD, overall water use dropped 24% over May and June compared with the three previous years, while outdoor irrigation declined by an estimated 41%. While these early results are promising, the District emphasizes that conservation remains essential. Residents are encouraged to continue following the two-day watering schedule, repair leaks promptly, and eliminate unnecessary outdoor water use.
With more frequent headlines about El Niño, many people wonder what it could mean for the Eagle River Valley.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Those warmer waters influence atmospheric circulation and can shift weather patterns around the world. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, as of July 9, 2026, there is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño developing during October through December and a 97% chance it will persist into early spring 2027.
To better understand what that could mean for Colorado, I spoke with Peter Goble, Colorado’s Assistant State Climatologist.
“The impacts to Colorado for any given El Niño event can vary quite a bit,” Goble explained.
Generally, El Niño increases the likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions during late summer and fall. Current outlooks suggest western Colorado has an increased chance of receiving monsoonal moisture during late July and early August, which could also bring periods of slightly cooler temperatures.
However, Goble cautioned that increased odds do not guarantee increased precipitation. While additional moisture could reduce the risk of large wildfires, thunderstorms also bring the risk of lightning strikes, which can ignite new fires. More importantly, a wetter-than-average summer won’t solve our water supply challenges.
“It will not rescue our water supply,” Goble said. About 80% of our water supply comes from winter snowpack, making snowfall far more important than summer rainfall when it comes to replenishing reservoirs.
Goble also emphasized that Colorado’s long-term warming trend, driven by human-caused climate change, is expected to continue. Summers are becoming warmer, with more frequent hot days and temperatures that increasingly exceed historical averages. Unlike winter and spring, summer weather experiences less natural temperature variability from shifting weather systems, making the long-term warming trend more apparent.
Naturally, the question many people are asking is: What does El Niño mean for next winter’s snowpack?
The honest answer is that it’s still too early to know.
Recent El Niño winters have produced a healthy snowpack across much of Colorado, but every event is different. For example, much of the snowfall during the winter of 2023 occurred before El Niño fully developed. While El Niño can influence winter weather, it is only one of many factors that determine how much snow Colorado ultimately receives.
Regardless of what next winter brings, one thing is clear: our conservation efforts matter. By continuing to follow watering restrictions and using water wisely, we can help protect river flows and preserve our limited water supply.
It’s not too early to start thinking about next year’s landscaping and how you can embrace more water-wise landscaping with native plants and perennials. Check out ERWSD’s Smart Irrigation and Landscaping webpage and Beyond Lawn for some great tips and best practices. If next winter brings another disappointing snowpack, we’ll need to conserve even more water. The actions we take today will help our community become more resilient in the future.
Kim Burke is the Director of Climate Strategy for the Climate Action Collaborative with Walking Mountains. The Climate Action Collaborative is working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Eagle County 50% by 2030 and 80% by 2050.
